By the numbers, CVC one of state's toughest-maybe
Commentary by Mark Gilman, Full Access Sports
October 20, 2009

I have always taken rankings and other similar sports numbers with a grain of salt—especially when it comes to football.

I partially blame the BCS and my love of Mark Twain’s memorable quote that there are “lies, damn lies and statistics.”

Even with that, I was taken with the idea of trying to determine some sort of pecking order for Oregon 6A football.  So I took a shot at it, keeping it relatively simple. 

There are certainly some flaws in my system, but then again, the BCS is still considered credible.

With a handful of games left, I decided to do a little number crunching involving the top four teams in each 6A conference.  In the event of ties at the fourth spot, I went with the team with the best overall record (flaw number one).

I used only the offensive and defensive scoring numbers of those teams by conference to come up with these numbers:

Best Offensive Conference:  the score-early-and-often Central Valley Conference, already being criticized by some for lax defense, is best in points for the 6A, with a scoring average of 36.1 points between Sprague, West Salem, South Salem and McKay.  They are followed by the Southwest Conference (32.8), the Pacific Conference (31.9), Mt. Hood (29.7), Three Rivers (26.9), Metro (26.6) and PIL (25.3).

Best Defensive Conference: honors go to the Metro (17.9 ppg).  That league is followed by Southwest (19.1), Three Rivers (19.6), Pacific (23.0), CVC and PIL (26.0), and Mt. Hood (26.1).

Although the old saying goes that defense wins championships, the difference between scoring and defense has always been a better indicator to me.  And if the numbers are crunched for score differential, the findings are interesting.

Based on those figures, the top conferences are:  1. Southwest (+13.7 ppg); 2. CVC (+10.1); 3. Pacific (+8.9); 4. Metro (+8.5); 5. Three Rivers (+8.9); 6. Mt. Hood (+3.6); 7. PIL (-0.7).

Of course, the strength of conference does not provide an accurate predictor of individual team success in the playoffs.  Team figures in this category give the top rating to Sheldon (+35.0 ppg), followed by Grant (+20.0), Sprague (18.0), Canby (15.7), Newberg (15.6), and West Salem (15.0).  Still, the numbers for both differential categories do not take into account strength of schedule—flaw number two.

However, the figures are worth discussing.  Football fans can argue, complain and dismiss these numbers to their heart's content—just like the BCS.

Mark Twain was right, but it was still fun.

Mark Gilman can be contacted at mark@fullaccesssports.com